Government Shutdown Likely to Happen

Category: Federal & State Compliance

Written by Gabe Neville and Bruce H. Andrews From Covington & Burling LLP on Jan 30, 2026

The recent events in Minneapolis appear likely to result in a partial government shutdown as Congressional Democrats demand changes to provisions related to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the Homeland Security Appropriations bill. The bill is part of a “minibus” package of 6 bills that include funding for defense, financial services and a number of independent regulatory agencies, homeland security, labor, health, education, transportation, housing and foreign affairs. The $1.33 trillion 6-bill “minibus” needs to pass by Friday to avoid a lapse in funding for relevant programs.

The path forward remains unclear, and the standoff may go unresolved until one party senses it is losing the political debate. Senate Democrats have suggested proceeding with the other five bills while Congress negotiates new guardrails for ICE. That appears unlikely to happen. The House has passed the six-bill “minibus,” so any changes would require the amended legislation to go back to the House to consider it again—a process that could also result in a shutdown.

The bills included in the minibus are:

  • Defense Appropriations provides discretionary funding for nearly all military-related activities of the Department of Defense (DOD) except the construction of facilities and the provision of family housing
  • Financial Services and General Government (FSGG), which funds the Department of the Treasury, the Executive Office of the President, the federal judiciary, the District of Columbia, and more than two dozen independent agencies.
  • Department of Homeland Security Appropriations bill funds agencies in that department including Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), the Coast Guard (USCG), and the Secret Service.
  • Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education, and Related Agencies Appropriations (Labor-H or LHHS) funds the Department of Labor (DOL), most agencies at the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Education (ED), and more than a dozen related agencies. (It does not fund the Food and Drug Administration.) Less than 20 percent of the funding in this bill is discretionary.
  • National Security, Department of State, and Related Programs bill, previously called “State and Foreign Operations,” includes funding for U.S. diplomatic activities; cultural exchanges; development, security, and humanitarian assistance; and participation in multilateral organizations, and other international activities.
  • Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies (THUD) Appropriations bill funds the Department of Transportation (DOT), the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and certain related agencies.

Federal employees deemed essential will continue to work. These “excepted” employees perform work that protects human life, protects property, or is constitutionally mandated. Examples of excepted employees include Secret Service agents, Air Traffic Controllers, and (significantly in this case) ICE agents. According to the Department of Homeland Security’s most recent shutdown procedures plan, an estimated 19,626 out of 21,028 ICE personnel (93.3 percent) are deemed essential.

Congress had previously enacted six FY 2026 appropriations bills that will not be impacted by any shutdown including:

  • Agriculture Appropriations
  • Legislative Branch Appropriations
  • Military Construction-Veterans Affairs
  • Commerce, Justice, Science Appropriations
  • Energy & Water
  • Interior-Environment

The following is a list of accounts, independent agencies, and related agencies that will be impacted by a shutdown including:

FSGG:

Administrative Conference of the United StatesGoldwater FoundationCommission on Federal Naming and DisplaysCommodity Futures Trading CommissionConsumer Product Safety CommissionElection Assistance CommissionFederal Communications CommissionFederal Deposit Insurance Corporation – Office of Inspector GeneralFederal Election CommissionFederal Labor Relations AuthorityFederal Permitting Improvement Steering CouncilFederal Trade CommissionGeneral Services AdministrationHarry S. Truman Scholarship FoundationInspectors General Council Fund (Oversight.gov)Merit Systems Protection BoardUdall FoundationNational Archives and Records AdministrationNational Credit Union AdministrationOffice of Government EthicsOffice of Personnel Management (Discretionary)Office of Special CounselPostal Regulatory CommissionPrivacy and Civil Liberties Oversight BoardPublic Buildings Reform BoardPublic Company Accounting Oversight Board – ScholarshipsSecurities and Exchange CommissionSelective Service SystemSmall Business AdministrationU.S. Postal Service FundU.S. Postal Service Office of Inspector GeneralU.S. Tax Court

LHHS:

Corporation for National and Community Service (AmeriCorps)Corporation for Public BroadcastingInstitute of Museum and Library Services

SFOPS:

African Development BankAfrican Development FundAgency for Global Media (USAGM)Assistance for Europe, Eurasia, Central Asia (AEECA)Complex Crises Fund (CCF)Democracy Fund (DF)Development Assistance (DA)Economic Support Fund (ESF)Emergency Refugee and Migration Assistance (ERMA)European Bank for Reconstruction and DevelopmentExport-Import Bank of the United States (Ex-Im Bank)Foreign Military Financing (FMF)Global Agriculture and Food Security ProgramGlobal Environment FacilityGlobal Health ProgramsInter-American FoundationInter-American Investment CorporationInternational Bank for Reconstruction and DevelopmentInternational Disaster Assistance (IDA)International Fund for Agriculture and DevelopmentInternational Military Education and Training (IMET)International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (INCLE)Migration and Refugee Assistance (MRA)Millennium Challenge CorporationNonproliferation, Anti-terrorism, Demining and Related Programs (NADR)Peace CorpsPeacekeeping Operations (PKO)Transition Initiatives (TI)Treasury International Assistance ProgramsU.S. African Development FoundationU.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC)U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA)

THUD:

Amtrak Inspector GeneralFederal Maritime CommissionInteragency Council on HomelessnessNational Transportation Safety BoardNeighborhood Reinvestment Corporation (NeighborWorks America)Surface Transportation BoardU.S. Access Board